SOIM Links

This is a set of links to Context/Earth blog posts and Azimuth Forum posts concerning the Southern Oscillation Index Model (SOIM), used to understand ENSO and El Nino.

Early Posts setting the stage

  1. The Southern Oscillation Index Model
  2. SOIM and the Paul Trap
  3. The SOIM Differential Equation
  4. Correlation of Time Series (NINO 3.4)

Chandler Wobble

  1. The Chandler Wobble and the SOIM
  2. The SOIM: substantiating the Chandler Wobble and tidal connection to ENSO

Quasi-Biennial Oscillation

  1. The QBOM
  2. Change of Tide in thought?

Proxy Posts

  1. Proxy Confirmation of SOIM
  2. SOIM fit to Unified ENSO proxy

Tidal Connection

  1. Using Tidal Gauges to Estimate ENSO
  2. An ENSO Predictor Based on a Tide Gauge Data Model
  3. Two modes to ENSO Variability

Sloshing

  1. Sloshing Animation
  2. Sloshing Quotes

Comprehensive Posts featuring QBO, TSI, Chandler

  1. Demodulation and the SOIM
  2. Final Recap
    White paper "Sloshing Model for ENSO".
    And on ARXIV as PDF

 


Azimuth Forum threads

These forum threads are ones that I either initiated or partially hijacked with SOIM discussions.  Look at the entire forum for other interesting ENSO and El Nino discussions (see research focus and recap).

5 thoughts on “SOIM Links

  1. Pingback: Paper on Sloshing Model for ENSO | context/Earth

  2. Pingback: Characterizing Changes in the Angular Momentum of the Earth | context/Earth

  3. Pingback: Raising the Bar on ENSO Model Validation | context/Earth

  4. Hi Paul,

    An interesting exercise would be to do the following:
    1. SOIM with astronomical forcings only (lunar and planetary)
    2.SOIM as in 1, but adding in the Chandler Wobble
    3. SOIM as in your white paper (already done)
    4. Compare the 3 models above to see if the added complexity really gains very much.

    Generally a simpler model is less prone to claims of overfitting, and is likely to give better long term forecasts. In fact the various changes in the frequency of the Chandler wobble over time are a problem because they can only be deduced by using past data. For forward predictions model 1 may be best.

  5. Dennis, Something will eventually click in place.
    If a short 18 month fitting interval contains much of what is required to fit the rest of the time series, then the reality has to be close.

Leave a Reply